Tuesday, October 05, 2010

A coup in Iraq?

Iraq is entering a crucial period, which could include a coup triggered by disenchantment and frustration with the political class, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist said Monday.
Anthony Shadid, an Oklahoma native and Baghdad correspondent for The New York Times, shared war stories at the University of Central Oklahoma. The lecture was sponsored by The New York Times and the American Democracy Project.

The above is from Mark Schlachtenhaufen's "Journalist: Coup may be in Iraq's future" (Edmond Sun). Shadid goes on to note that he's not saying a coup will take place but that the "conversation" is taking place in Iraq. Harry Smith (CBS' The Early Show) offers a commentary on the status of Iraq's government here. Steve Inskeep and Michael Wahid Hanna run the possibilities on today's Morning Edition (NPR). So what's everyone talking about?

March 7th, Iraq concluded Parliamentary elections. The Guardian's editorial board noted last month, "These elections were hailed prematurely by Mr Obama as a success, but everything that has happened since has surely doused that optimism in a cold shower of reality." 163 seats are needed to form the executive government (prime minister and council of ministers). When no single slate wins 163 seats (or possibly higher -- 163 is the number today but the Parliament added seats this election and, in four more years, they may add more which could increase the number of seats needed to form the executive government), power-sharing coalitions must be formed with other slates, parties and/or individual candidates. (Eight Parliament seats were awarded, for example, to minority candidates who represent various religious minorities in Iraq.) Ayad Allawi is the head of Iraqiya which won 91 seats in the Parliament making it the biggest seat holder. Second place went to State Of Law which Nouri al-Maliki, the current prime minister, heads. They won 89 seats. Nouri made a big show of lodging complaints and issuing allegations to distract and delay the certification of the initial results while he formed a power-sharing coalition with third place winner Iraqi National Alliance -- this coalition still does not give them 163 seats. They are claiming they have the right to form the government. In 2005, Iraq took four months and seven days to pick a prime minister. It's six months and twenty-eight days with no government formed.

The stalemate continues. Some just know it's about to end. They've 'just known' that for seven months now. The stalemate ends when Iraq forms a government. Leila Fadel (Washington Post) reports this morning that allies of Nouri and allies of Allawi are in talks currently. The discussions reportedly center around Nouri being prime minister and Allawi becoming president with expanded powers. The Irish Times reminds that nothing is a done deal and that Nouri still doesn't have the needed seats to form a government: "However, Mr Maliki is not there yet. He needs a commitment from Kurdish parties to get a clear majority. They offered yesterday to open talks, although on conditions that are likely to prove difficult. Critical will be a dispute over oil contracts which the Kurdish regional government insists should be part of its remit, and which has halted exports from the region. They also want the government to finance the peshmerga, the Kurdish military."

Reuters notes a Baghdad roadside bombing has injured two people, three Taji roadside bombings destroyed the hom of a police officer, Brig Gen Muhammad Aziz was shot dead in Mosul, a Mosul roadside bombing injured a child, 1 corpse was discovered in Mosul and, dropping back to last night, a Kirkuk drive-by injured one person.

Last week at World Can't Wait, Debra Sweet noted:

Actor Mark Ruffalo wrote to World Can’t Wait on why he signed Crimes Are Crimes and donated towards publishing it:

"These wars are unjust and the way they are being waged is unlawful. We are not winning hearts and minds. Americans are angry. Every day we see affronts to our laws by corporations and politicians, crimes that go unpunished. For the poor and powerless the law is cruel and unfair. That is the basis of our anger.

We sense our country falling into chaos. That is because law does not seem to carry weight for the privileged and the powerful. Help us put an end to these hypocritical assaults on our constitution. Help us to restore integrity in the purpose of democracy.”

You can take inspiration from his example and join us to make a big splash in The New York Times next week, in the midst of all commemorations and debate surrounding the anniversary of the start of the escalating war in Afghanistan.

And click here to stream a video of Noam Chomsky explaining the importance of the above.

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