During the 2016 campaign, FiveThirtyEight.com released The Ross Perot Myth, a short video debunking the idea that Perot’s 1992 presidential run handed Bill Clinton victory over George H.W. Bush. According to election gurus Nate Silver and Steve Kornacki, the data doesn’t support that “spoiler” perception. Democratic strategist James Carville agrees, while Republican strategists Mary Matalin and Bill Kristol disagree, saying Perot absolutely cost Bush his reelection. Though Perot didn’t win any electoral votes, he managed to take 19% of the popular vote. It’s been widely studied and yet is still up for debate. Another arguable third-party spoiler was during the 2000 presidential election, in which many contend that Ralph Nader’s presence on the Florida ballot pulled votes that would have otherwise been cast for Al Gore. A ballot-level 2006 study by Michael C. Herron and Jeffrey B. Lewis concluded that Nader did actually siphon votes from Gore, but only because Florida’s election was “unusually tight.” The U.S. has plenty of other parties beyond Republicans and Democrats, but compared to the major players, their numbers are practically a rounding error. As of October 2022, the 33 states and territories that make party affiliations public reported 48 million Democrats, 36.4 million Republicans, 35.3 million independents or unaffiliated voters, and another 4 million Americans in the catch-all “other” group. Those numbers suggest that third-party candidates stand a chance in city halls, school boards and statehouses. Even some House seats might be won with this type of partisan distribution. But until McMullin decided to take on Lee for Senate, the conventional thinking was that someone outside the two major parties had absolutely no chance of winning a statewide or national race. That’s why the Utah Democrats’ decision was so important: Even though the number of registered Democrats who would vote for Lee could probably be counted on one hand, endorsing McMullin could mobilize Dems who otherwise might have stayed home. The latest Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics survey, conducted Sept. 3-21, shows Lee leading by 36% to McMullin’s 34%, with 16% unsure and 13% voting for someone else. With the margin of error being ±3.43%, the race is a bona fide toss-up — and one McMullin cannot win without Democrats and independents. The number of registered Republicans in Utah (876,932) is nearly double the number of unaffiliated voters (475,440), which is almost double the number of registered Democrats (233,952). Those numbers simply don’t support a Democrat winning, even with independent support. But reverse that hypothetical situation and it’s another story. McMullin is that legitimate third-party challenger thanks to Utah’s unique political environment. Many Americans talk about the desire to have a national third party. Aside from the structural hurdles and the “spoiler” perception, it would also take a lot of money to make that happen — and the history isn’t promising: Like Perot, whose billions couldn’t buy a successful presidential run, former NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg got exactly nowhere in the 2020 Democratic primaries while armed with essentially an unlimited budget. This leads one to believe a viable national third party needs to begin at the local and state levels. Politics is, however, a copycat sport. If McMullin wins — and he really has a shot — someone else will likely try an independent run in the next cycle. | 
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