The midterms loom. 16 days away for regular voting, early voting already going on in most states, it starts in Texas tomorrow. On NBC's MEET THE PRESS this morning, moderator Kristen Welker addressed the way things stood with NBC NEWS' Steve Kornacki:
KRISTEN WELKER:
Good Sunday morning. With just 16 days until the midterms, the political map is now shifting. The Cook Political Report has moved 11 more House races toward Democrats as Republicans face growing voter frustration over the economy. NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki is here with me at the big board with the results of our brand new NBC News Decision Desk poll. Steve, quite a snapshot, 16 days out.
STEVE KORNACKI:
Yeah, Kristen. What you’re seeing is the climate that’s propelling the shift you’re talking about there. So first of all, the big-picture question here: Trump’s approval rating. Our Decision Desk poll, again this is registered voters here, bit of a wider net than you see in the other polls out there right now. But 39% here, the approval rating. And again, this continues to be the story, asking, “Do you approve of Trump on inflation here?” Only 31%, 34% on Iran. He does do better when it comes to immigration. But voters saying that it’s more inflation, it’s the economy, it’s cost of living. That’s more front and center to them than immigration, than some of the other issues. And he’s got very low numbers right there. Also seeing this: the generic ballot here, “Which party would you like to see control Congress?” The advantage in this Decision Desk poll here for Democrats is nine points there. You know, if you went back to Trump’s first midterm in 2018, bad one for Republicans, it was a tick under that. So nine right now there. Getting toward the high side for Democrats, very alarming for Republicans. And again, what’s driving this? We’re asking folks, your financial situation, compare it to a year ago, how is it? 44% saying, “worse now than a year ago.” By the way, among Independents, outright majority, 53% say worse now than a year ago. Again, it gets to that climate here, gas prices, two-thirds here in this poll saying, “This is a serious problem,” the cost of gas, the cost of fuel for them and for their family. This is interesting too I thought Kristen though. Within what we think of as the president’s base, among Republicans in this poll, look at the difference here. Among those who call themselves MAGA Republicans, his approval rating is still 93%, it’s not bad. Among those who say, “No, I’m more of a traditional Republican,” 63%. And compare this to a year ago, look at this, the MAGA number is not moving that much. This number is. And the other thing picking up here in the poll, “How do you identify yourself,” we’re asking Republicans. “Do you call yourself a MAGA Republican or a traditional Republican?” Look at how the balance has shifted. It’s now 56% who say traditional Republican. Look at where the number was in 2025. The majority was on the MAGA side. So that shifted too. We do say though, end on a note of caution here, a note of uncertainty. We showed you that generic ballot here, but break it down this way, asking folks, “Will you definitely vote in the midterm?” There’s a motivation edge here for Democrats. They lead by 12 on the generic ballot with “definitely.” That’s about 80% of the folks in the poll. But those who say “probably” or “no,” and believe it or not, some folks who say “no” to a poll do end up voting, the Republicans have the advantage with those who are not sure they’re going to be voting right now. So the more Republicans succeed in expanding the electorate there, they might be able to bring that generic ballot down some.
KRISTEN WELKER:
Important note of caution there. Steve, fascinating findings. Really appreciate your being here to break it all down. For more expert analysis on the midterms all season long, you can subscribe to the Data Dive with Steve Kornacki, his weekly newsletter, out every Tuesday at NBCNews.com/DataDive. Meanwhile on the campaign trail this weekend, as Americans struggle with rising prices, President Trump lashing out at those blaming him for the cost of living.
And this as Dan Balz and Scott Clement (WASHINGTON POST) reported today on a new poll:
33% approval for Chump with 66% of respondents disapproving of Chump's performance. That's not at all surprising when you consider the low turnout around the country for Chump's DESPERATION TOUR. On the new WASHINGTON POST-ABC NEWS - Ipsos poll, Emily Guskin (ABC NEWS) notes:
Half or more Americans call every household purchase category measured “unaffordable” in the latest poll, including 71% who now call gasoline unaffordable, up from 28% who said the same in February, before the war in Iran drove up fuel costs. The national average gas price has topped $4 a gallon for a record 158 days in 2026 so far.
An increasing share of Americans also call healthcare unaffordable (65%, up from 56% in February) along with home energy and utility costs (57%, up from 45%) and rent or mortgage (50%, up from 37%).
And 60% call groceries unaffordable, also up from February (45%) but less than July (66%).
Growing shares of Americans call relative luxuries unaffordable, too. A 61% majority of Americans call going out to dinner unaffordable, up from 49% in February. Even more, 69%, say a weeklong vacation is unaffordable, up from 60%. And 80% call a new car unaffordable, up from 74% in February.
In all, 75% of Americans rate the nation’s economy negatively, including 35% who call it poor. Roughly half, 48%, say they are “not as well off” as they were when Trump became president, a high over both of his presidential terms.
On his DESPERARTION TOUR, Chump keeps lying that "affordability" is a new term invented by the Democrats recently. No, it's use in the US can be traced back to at least 1910 -- THE INDIANOPOLIS STAR's archives show it being used in 1910. But Chump wants to lie that the term was invented by Democrats recently. And it was coined, he insists, to trash him.
He's not a genius. Despite his claims -- which may result from his advanced dementia -- he is not a genius. He is not educated. He is street urchin who made his living as a con artist and grifter. He knows how to trick people and that's all he's ever known. Some people are easily tricked which is why Chump's continues his lie that affordability is a new term and one that was invented to attack him.
Liz Crampton (POLITICO) speaks with Abigail Spanberger about her successful 2025 gubernatorial campaign in Virginia which stressed affordability who tells her:
It’s a question of what’s the commonality between constituents and voters in any place in the country and the hardships, challenges, difficulties that they’re feeling. In terms of building out my campaign in 2025, it was directly responsive to the things that I heard along the campaign trail. Even in the earliest of my campaign days for governor, certainly the focus was on supporting Virginians in our economy and strengthening our schools, but my messaging and, frankly, more importantly, my policy proposals on affordability became more and more of a focus as issues of affordability became more and more of an absolutely salient issue that, no matter where I went in Virginia, people were saying the same variation of the same thing.
Instead of getting off his fat ass and addressing the economy, Donald Chump has wasted Americans time with nonsense like his claim June 10th "I love inflation" and his claim that the Iran War's impact on the economy (causing all this inflation) was "a small price to pay" -- a line he again repeated this month in Nebraska at one of his poorly attended rallies. He's also wasted their time with a series of cons that were about lying to the American people and trying to put one over on them. Freedom Fuel? Remember that? It was one of his cons that we now know more about. Kathy Gilsinan and James Bikales (POLITICO) report:
On the scale of second-term Trumpian antics, the promotion of several dozen gas stations in the Eagles-and-Wawa belt of Pennsylvania and South Jersey — plus two new ones that opened in Detroit this fall — doesn’t look like much relative to the ballroom, the crypto ventures or the $400 million plane gifted by Qatar. But it is a highly visible manifestation of his flailing efforts to address a political liability unleashed by his own decisions, relying on unvetted private businesses to lower gas prices in the absence of better ideas to open the Strait of Hormuz.
It is also a high-octane metaphor for the president’s approach to governing, with all its corner-cutting and haste and disdain for regulation, its triumph of marketing over substance and consistent fights with the press. As in many such stories, the tale of Freedom Fuel features private business interests finding bizarre ways to pander to the White House. Despite the operators’ and the administration’s best efforts, and the seemingly innocent promise of cheaper gas, the tale of Freedom Fuel also shows how the administration’s free-wheeling approach to problems can create an even bigger mess.
At the time, it was mysterious why and how Trump started posting, on July 1, about “a VERY smart retailer” lowering gas prices at 25 “FREEDOM FUEL” gas stations in time for America’s 250th anniversary, “because they love the U.S.A.” The White House official now says the owners brought the idea to the White House’s National Energy Dominance Council, who flagged it to the president, who put it on Truth Social. More official promotion followed: On July 3, Jarrod Agen, the council’s executive director, visited one of the stations, posing alongside White House deputy press secretary Taylor Rogers flashing double thumbs-ups, her post attributing “relief at the pump” to “President Trump’s strong leadership.” On July 7, the White House’s YouTube channel put up an ad for the gas stations, featuring patrons thanking Trump by name and a voiceover by Agen crediting “President Donald J. Trump” with “leading the charge to lower gas prices, right here at Freedom Fuel Network’s gas stations.” The price per gallon: $3.47, in honor of the 47th president — 50 cents lower, per Agen, than the average price per gallon in Pennsylvania.
Yet the White House also insisted to reporters that the stations were private businesses with no formal government backing or subsidies — minus, presumably, the value of free national advertising and earned media — that could explain their steep discounts. “Freedom Fuel is a patriotic company doing a good thing for drivers in Pennsylvania and New Jersey by lowering their gas prices,” Rogers told POLITICO in a statement in early July. “They are doing their part to answer the President’s call to lower prices at the pump.” She declined to say who was behind the company.
It was only when the investigative news site The Newsground, and then POLITICO, got hold of the formation documents that the involvement of Brown and Gontownik became public. Still, despite their high-profile launch and splashy prices, Freedom Fuel’s backers and operators stayed scrupulously mum when asked how the math could possibly work, as other industry players noted they must be losing money. The first rule of Freedom Fuel, apparently, was you do not talk about Freedom Fuel.
Meanwhile, the feel-good story of private citizens cutting into their own profit margins for the sake of their communities started to look a lot more complicated. POLITICO also discovered that Kazmi, the fuel retailer whose business had appeared on paperwork related to the refinery talks, was the authorized operator of a number of Freedom Fuel stations. And Kazmi’s stations that became part of the network had racked up fines in New Jersey for safety and environmental violations; another had failed an inspection in Philadelphia; yet another Pennsylvania station was at the center of a trademark dispute between BP and a Kazmi family company in 2021.
Then, late in August, came another break in the mystery: The fuel supplier Mansfield Oil Co. sued a company headed by Shamikh’s brother, Syed Kazmi, alleging it had stolen almost $4 million worth of fuel and sold it on the cheap to stations in the Freedom Fuel network. Freedom Fuel itself wasn’t named as a party in the lawsuit or accused of wrongdoing, though Mansfield later added Shamikh Kazmi to its complaint; the White House official said in a statement that the administration “has had zero contact or dealings” with Syed Kazmi or his company, KRSM Inc. KRSM disputed the allegations via a statement from its lawyer, Mauro Tucci, calling the matter an “accounting dispute” over mispriced invoices.
Every promise or even claim he makes comes with an asterisk -- for the corrective context his false statements require.
The midterms were also addressed on CNN's INSIDE POLITICS SUNDAY by moderator Manu Raju and a panel of journalists:
RAJU: So will Democratic momentum actually turn into votes?
Let's break this all down with our panel of road warriors, CNN's Jeff Zeleny, Leigh Ann Caldwell from "Puck News"; and Zolan Kanno-Youngs with "The New York Times".
Good morning to you all.
JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.
RAJU: Good to see you all here in Washington. I know we've all spent some time on the road the last several weeks, but 16 days left and Trump has also been on the road, including last night in very red Kentucky Senate race there. That's really not central to the battle for control of the Senate. But that's been the story of his campaign travel, oftentimes going to red states.
And you can see on your map his upcoming travel this week, really just two Senate battlegrounds. He is going to be this week, Kansas. We're going to talk about in the next segment, Iowa, central to the Senate majority here, but also North -- South Carolina. I mean, this is a race that's gotten a little bit more complicated for Republicans. Still have an advantage there.
Jeff, 16 days out, handicap the Democrats' chances of winning.
ZELENY: Look, it's a blessing and a curse for Democrats that the final chapter of this campaign is playing out in red states. On the plus side for Democrats, they are competitive in states, as you were talking about, you were in Kansas, obviously Iowa. The Great Plains really is at the center of the fight for control of the Senate.
But just because Democrats are competitive in these red states does not mean they're going to win. So it's a blessing and a curse I would say, that it's ending in these red states. And Democrats are within striking distance in every single one of these states. I was in Texas this week and running into so many Republicans. Some are supporting James Talarico, some are worried that he could win, and others believe that this is still going to come down to the final weeks of defining them.
One sort of common theme of all of them, every single Democratic candidate is trying to outrun the Democratic brand. It is not good in these red states. They know that. So that is going to be the open question on election night. Is an Adam Hamilton able to outrun the brand? Is a Josh Turek in Iowa able to differentiate himself enough?
And James Talarico last night, San Antonio on stage with the chicks trying to make the case to a variety of different audiences that it is time for a change. But again, these red states mean that Republicans have some advantages there, too.
[08:05:01]
RAJU: That's why they're trying to -- Republicans are trying to nationalize the race in state after state, saying its all about Democratic control of the United States Senate, hoping Republican voters overlook all their concerns about Trump, the economy, and the rest that they ultimately come home here.
But the story about the fundraising tells us -- tells what's happening in this campaign, at this moment right now, because the Democratic money, if you look at the map right here, your seats -- the seats that you're seeing in states you're seeing in yellow are what "Cook Political Report" considers toss up races here. So you're seeing a lot of battlegrounds here.
But then you look at the money as I was just saying, look at this here because the Democratic fundraising in the last quarter has just been staggering. Here you talk about James Talarico, Jeff, look at this 60 million bucks in one quarter compared to 10 for Ken Paxton. And just down the line -- I mean, just all the Democrats are outraising significantly. That's a -- that's a sizable amount.
But, you know, one thing that we also look at this moment, how much money is left in the bank account. That's what's, of course, known as cash on hand. You know, the Republicans in some of these states are doing a little bit better than the Democrats there.
Oops, get rid of that. Get rid of that. Okay. I guess it's -- it's acting up.
There we go. So the Democrats are doing a little bit better. Republicans are doing a little bit better in, say, Michigan being one of them, Alaska being another Ohio. They've got a little bit more money in the bank account. So there's still some bright spots for Republicans when it comes to money, especially when it comes to the outside spending as well. But the fact that the Democrats are raising this much money shows that the base is juiced right now.
LEIGH ANN CALDWELL, PUCK NEWS CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, absolutely. The candidate money that they are raising, as you just mentioned, is, is part of the story. I mean, it is a sign of enthusiasm and motivation for Democrats and also candidate quality that the base is really happy with the candidates that they have on the map here. But then when it comes to the outside spending, you have massive Republican outside spending from the likes of Elon Musk.
There's some money from MAGA Inc. and Trump's affiliated super PACs, although Elon Musk has spent more than Donald Trump this cycle, which very telling --
(CROSSTALK)
RAJU: As you -- as you continue here, look at the amount of money that Elon Musk has spent, $276 million. He's the biggest midterm donor in the history of this country. That's his own money. And $158 million just going to try to get Ken Paxton over the finish line in Texas.
CALDWELL: Yeah, absolutely. And this is what Republicans are hoping will help these Republicans in the final stretch. They have been begging for this outside money, and it has come in. Of course, there's all these dynamics where this outside money doesn't get the same ad rates as the candidate money, which gives Democrats another small advantage.
But the money is a huge deal. And this could very well be the most expensive midterm cycle yet. And, and just one last point to double down on what I just said is that for the last few weeks, that is the one thing that Republicans are pointing to as perhaps the thing that can help them, because they know they have not a lot else to run on, is that they're hoping that the money from these outside groups makes a big difference.
And so, yesterday in Michigan, there was a moment where Abdul El-Sayed was confronting a question about the Muslim Brotherhood. He was, of course, this issue about Israel and the way he has handled it has been central, not just in the primary that ended in August, but also as he tries to court Jewish voters in the state. Very divisive issue. We saw what happened to Kamala Harris in 2024 on the issue of Gaza, how Trump ultimately capitalized on Biden's handling of it winning Michigan.
Abdul El-Sayed was asked about this. He would be, of course, the first Muslim senator if he were to win the Muslim Brotherhood. I want you to listen to how he responded to this voter.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Will you disavow the Muslim Brotherhood?
ABDUL EL-SAYED (D), MICHIGAN SENATE CANDIDATE: Sure. Yeah, absolutely. You're asking the question because implicitly you assume that I'll have dual loyalties, right? You assume that somehow I wouldn't disavow or that I'll have some higher order allegiance than to the Constitution. For me, that Constitution is the guiding light.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RAJU: How do you think, Zolan, he has handled these questions through the course of this campaign? Here he was. He tried to go after this voter who was asking him a question. Will you disavow the Muslim Brotherhood?
ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yeah, yeah. Look, this is this is a tight race. And you noted this, that El Sayed has the past comments that he's had. There is -- he is facing some challenges when it comes to concerns for more moderate voters.
RAJU: He's campaigning with Hasan Piker.
KANNO-YOUNGS: That's right. That's right. Concern from Jewish voters as well. I think we can also state that and that there is concern there.
And then also state that also there has been a lot of attacks as well from the Republican Party that has dipped into Islamophobia as well, you know, specifying full name as well, trying to make these --
RAJU: Trump calling him Mohammed.
KANNO-YOUNGS: Right, right. Trump calling --
RAJU: His name is Abdul.
[08:10:00]
KANNO-YOUNGS: Right, saying that Democrats are running jihadists across the country, President Trump said as well.
Here you see him sort of leaning into this question from a voter, seemingly with an awareness of all of those other attacks and baggage that has come with this campaign. These attacks are not going to stop as well. This is the type of thing that's interesting to see at a town hall as well, where you see him leaning in and actually engaging with a voter on a question like this.
ZELENY: And it's -- if you watch the whole clip, it's unclear if the voter had a genuine question about this or if he was trying to be provocative. The voter ran out right afterward. It was a -- not that it matters, I mean, it was an interesting question, no doubt, but I think his answer is something that he is trying to get over a hurdle of saying, look, he's an American.
I mean, he is a Michigander. He supports the U.S. constitution, but there are a lot of ugly questions out there that are being fomented by the other side and other questions in general, just about El Sayed.
RAJU: Yeah, I want to another issue that happened in another race and also overnight on Friday night, the president putting out an executive order to essentially waive sanctions that would be placed on Russia, that came as a result of painstaking bipartisan negotiations that led to the enactment of legislation that both sides were cheering just in the final weeks here.
Democrats, a lot of them, voted against it because they were concerned Trump would do what he just did on Friday, which was to waive sanctions against Russia in its -- because of, of course, the war in Ukraine. Trump doing this as a way to ease gasoline and diesel prices in particular, and getting some backlash from someone you probably would not expect here.
Darline Graham, who has aligned herself very much with president Trump throughout this, because she is he the reason why she is what the Republican nominee is because of Donald Trump's support in that South Carolina race. She said, I would choose to keep the pressure on Russia to end the war and get the gas prices down, because I don't trust Putin and I don't trust Russia.
Of course, this is her brother's legislation, the late Lindsey Graham, that he helped push across the finish line, and Trump quietly trying to wave a magic wand and get -- ease these sanctions on Russia.
CALDWELL: Yeah. It was the last conversation, the last, the topic of the last conversation that Lindsey Graham had with Donald Trump right before he died was about this legislation. But it goes to show of how Donald Trump is in South Carolina. The fact that Darline Graham felt the need to distance herself from the president in a state that she should win very easily talk -- gets to the larger political environment.
The fact that South Carolina is competitive, the fact that Donald Trump is having to go down there to campaign against, you know, for Darline Graham against, you know, an upstart candidate who Democrat who has maybe a chance.
RAJU: Yeah. We'll see. And again, it gets back to that ultimate that money discussion from before. Earlier, if Democrats had money to spend, they would spend more in South Carolina right now. They don't -- they're getting outspent by Republicans by those outside groups. We'll see how that plays out.
Republicans are struggling outside of Congressional races. For example, a Republican running for Lt Governor in Massachusettes has dropped out of the race. , and
The crash, which occurred Saturday around 11:40 p.m., damaged five vehicles and created a political firestorm for Oliver, with his own running mate calling on him to discontinue his campaign.
“After careful reflection, I have made the decision to suspend my campaign for Lieutenant Governor. This election is too important to be overshadowed by personal matters,” Oliver said in a post on his Facebook page. “I want to sincerely thank everyone who has supported me throughout this journey and ask that my family’s privacy be respected during this difficult time.”
Late Saturday evening, officers responded to Dartmouth Street for a motor vehicle crash involving an overturned car that struck multiple parked cars. Five cars were involved in the crash, spokesperson Holly Huntoon said, and two sustained “extensive damage.”
Oliver, 42, was taken to St. Luke’s for treatment of injuries and then placed under arrest. He was also charged with negligent operation of a motor vehicle, speeding and a marked lanes violation.
Let's wind down with this from Senator Mark Kelly's office:
“A pilot still needs to be able to complete the mission when the automation fails. Tomorrow’s warfighters must be able to recognize when an AI system is giving them bad information and know how to continue the mission without it.”
This week, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly published an op-ed in The Washington Times emphasizing the need to keep human judgment and accountability at the center of the military’s growing use of AI. Drawing on his experience as a Navy combat pilot and astronaut, Kelly highlighted legislation he introduced to ensure servicemembers can recognize when AI systems fail, continue operating without them, and maintain human oversight of critical military decisions.
Kelly introduced the Ultimate Human Responsibility in Defense Systems Actand the Warfighter AI Readiness and Preparedness (WARP) Actin June.
Click here to read the full op-ed. See key excerpts below:
On recognizing AI as a tool and understanding its limitations
Artificial intelligence is already changing warfare. […] But after 25 years in the Navy as a combat and test pilot and 15 years as an astronaut, I know having the most advanced technology doesn’t guarantee success. Technology is a tool. What matters is whether our people know how to use it, understand its limitations and can still accomplish the mission when it fails.
On introducing the Warfighter AI Readiness and Preparedness Act
While we need to have the most capable systems, we can’t lose sight of these two principles: our service members must be able to fight when technology fails, and human judgment and responsibility must be at the center of decisions about the use of force.
So first, we need the Department of Defense to assess how reliance on AI affects readiness, identify the skills most impacted by AI and determine how service members keep the judgment they need when those systems are unavailable or compromised. That’s the idea behind my bipartisan Warfighter AI Readiness and Preparedness (WARP) Act, that I introduced with Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark.
On introducing the Ultimate Human Responsibility in Defense Systems Act
Tomorrow’s warfighters must be able to recognize when an AI system is giving them bad information and know how to continue the mission without it.
Because while AI can assist human judgment, it cannot replace human responsibility, including for the use of force.
For that reason, we also need a permanent requirement for human judgment and accountability when autonomous weapons and AI systems are involved in the use of force, which is part of my Ultimate Human Responsibility in Defense Systems Act.
On the opportunity to maintain America’s military superiority
Our goal should be a military in which AI allows a service member to understand the battlefield faster, make better decisions and accomplish missions that would otherwise be impossible while still possessing the training, experience and judgment to recognize when technology is wrong and take control.
The countries that figure out that balance will have a major advantage. That edge is ours for the taking.
The following sites updated:
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