The Common Ills

Sunday, November 01, 2026

Carville: Haley Stevens’ Political Career Is OVER

The Sunday chat & chews 2 Days till the midterms

Two more days until November 3rd. The midterms are November 3rd. Every seat in the House is up for election -- 435 -- and there are 35 Senate seats that people are running for. And, as Jake Tapper observed on CNN's STATE OF THE UNION, "But at this point, the outcome is largely out of the hands of the politicians and the parties and the pundits and the pollsters, and it is up to the public, to you. You get to decide. And we are waiting to see the choices you make." The voters are in the drivers seat now. What does the polling say? From NBC's MEET THE PRESS this morning:

KRISTEN WELKER: Good Sunday morning. With less than 48 hours until Election Day, Democrats and Republicans are fighting for control of Congress. President Trump is heading to Iowa and Kansas today -- two states with critical Senate races that could determine the balance of power in Washington. And this morning, we have the results of our final NBC News poll before Election Day. NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki is at the big board. Steve, it all comes down to this.

STEVE KORNACKI: Yeah, Kristen, good morning to you. This is our final temperature check before we get those votes, start coming in on Tuesday. So where do things stand heading into there? Donald Trump’s approval rating, it sits in our final pre-election poll at 40% approval and 60% on the disapprove side. Now remember, this is Trump’s second midterm. Back in 2018, Republicans lost control of the House. They lost 40 seats in the House. They actually were okay in the Senate that year. What was his approval rating heading into that midterm in 2018? It was higher. It was 46% in our final poll then. So by this metric, Trump is in worse shape heading into his second midterm than into his first one. There is also this: the generic ballot. Which party would you like to see control Congress? The advantage there in our poll is seven points for the Democrats, 52-45. That is an uptick of two points from when we last polled this around Labor Day. And again compare this to 2018 and 2022, the two most recent midterms, it was dead even before the 2022 midterms, with a six point edge for Republicans back in 2018. So what are the ingredients going into these numbers here? Overwhelmingly it is this: how do you feel about the current state of the economy? Barely one quarter of voters say they’re satisfied with it. Almost three quarters say they’re dissatisfied. Again, compare this to Trump’s first midterm in 2018. I think this is why his standing in that approval rating is lower now. Because look at this, in 2018 the economy was his strong suit. Nearly 70% of voters on the eve of that midterm were satisfied with it. Total opposite right now. And then there is this one. Your own personal financial situation: 49 satisfied, 51 dissatisfied. Two notes on this: Again, in Trump’s first midterm in the run-up to it, the number -- sorry it’s not cooperating there. But the number was much higher back then. And this 51% figure that you see right here for dissatisfied, that is the first time in over 30 years of the NBC poll that the dissatisfaction number has been at that level, has been a majority. And so an--d the advantage here for the -- sorry about this board, Kristen, finally got it to cooperate there. But which party would do a better job on key issues? This also tells the story here. When it comes to inflation, Democrats with an advantage of a point. That may not seem like much. But this was like a 20 point advantage for Republicans just a couple years ago as Trump was returning to the White House. Same thing here on the economy. That is a two point advantage for Republicans. But again, this was Trump’s strong suit. This has historically been a strong suit. For those to even be close, that represents ground gained by Democrats. Again, there are a number of folks who say they aren’t sure and don’t favor either party on it. But again, those are advantages there clearly the Democrats have carved out here. Is there hope for Republicans? The one number they would point to would simply be, and this is a difference from 2018, the image of the two political parties here. Republicans are not popular. But their number overall as a party, their favorable, unfavorable number, about where it was in 2018. The Democrats, though, Kristen, only 29% favorable right now. That’s different than 2018. And that is one of the questions heading into Tuesday. In ‘18 the Democrats as a party, they were positioned to take votes from voters who were dissatisfied with Trump. Does the Democratic Party have more baggage now in a way that will prevent it from capitalizing on all of these other numbers we’re showing you?

Mary Bruce told George Stephanopoulos on ABC's THIS WEEK that "behind the scenes, there is a sense of unease here at the White House. The president has been short-tempered, and he does have a lot at stake beyond just the control of Congress. The president wants to show that he still has command over his party, command over his base, and, of course, fend off enhanced investigations and oversight, George."

Chump has a great deal at stake on Tuesday. If Democrats win control of even one house, they'll have investigative power and they'll have the power to hold him in check. It will also be the death bell ringing on Chump's political career announcing to all the land that the ogre is fading.

What's the mood on the economy? George Stephanopoulos addressed that with Elizabeth Schulze on ABC's THIS WEEK:

STEPHANOPOULOS: Let's turn to our team of correspondents covering the issues driving the voters in the midterms. Economy, biggest one of all. I want to start with Elizabeth Schulze in Washington. Cost of living overwhelming all other issues, Elizabeth.

ELIZABETH SCHULZE, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: No question. Good morning, George. And the price of gas is on track to set an election day record. Gas right now averaging $4.14 a gallon. Diesel, the lifeblood of the economy, is at $6.30. And this has now been the longest stretch on record with gas above $4 a gallon and it is dominating the midterms. This new Reuters/Ipsos poll this week found 72 percent of Americans say the cost of living is on the wrong track. Three-quarters of voters, including half of Republicans, disapprove of President Trump's handling of inflation and prices. And the reality is that the president's policies have fueled inflation. The spike in oil from the Iran War has driven up prices across the economy. Tariffs are contributing to higher costs for goods. And as a result of the president's signature tax and spending law, millions of lower-income Americans have lost access to federal benefits like food assistance and health care. The overall big picture, George, is that consumer spending has been very resilient, but more people are dipping into their savings to cover these higher costs, and wages are no longer keeping up with prices, George.

STEPHANOPOULOS: And, Elizabeth, so much of the economy right now is being driven by A.I. spending. It's also driving the stock market -- but a backlash developing on the campaign trail.

SCHULZE: Yes, and this is really a litmus test from voters on how they view A.I., which has been propping up stocks and the broader economy. A new report out this week from the government showed that half of all of economic growth in the U.S. in the third quarter came from business investment fueled by spending on A.I. We have seen tech companies pour hundreds of billions of dollars into building out data centers. So, there are new fears on Wall Street over how long it might take for that investment to pay off. And in town halls across the country, our team has seen this bipartisan, grassroots opposition to these data centers. Republicans have flipped on this issue, but President Trump has doubled down on them, George.

The indicators all show a strong turnout by Democratic voters but is a blue wave likely? On CNN's INSIDE POLITICS, Manu Raju addressed that issue with David Chalain:

MANU RAJU: So what does the early vote tell us about the potential for a Democratic wave on Tuesday? Well, more than 50 million people have already voted. Democrats -- Democratic voters are outpacing Republicans at this point, as expected. But are there warning signs for their party? Let's dive into the numbers with my panel. So, David Chalian, let's lets first look at the pre-election ballots that have been cast. These are of the 25 states that register by party here -- for voters to register by party. And you look at the states that are on your map here, and those are the states with senate races. there's overall an advantage for Democratic voters who have cast more votes than Republican voters. But when you look at nationally altogether here, there's a 40 it says 44 percent of the ballots that have been returned in 2026 have been Democratic voters, 30 percent have been Republican voters. When you compare that to the 2022 midterms, that was the year that Republicans took the house. They didn't have a big wave, but they took the house. The Democrats held the Senate back then, 43 percent of Democratic ballots have been returned at this point, versus 33 percent of Republican voters. So they had a 10 percent advantage. The Democrats did that. Now they have a 14 percent advantage. So if there's a wave election, is this a warning sign that it might not be, or is it too hard to break this down? David?

DAVID CHALIAN: This is the way I look at early vote. I think obviously you talk to campaign sources on both sides. They pore over this, they analyze this stuff and they look at it. And it is very important to their metrics because it creates their to-do list for Election Day. So this is -- this does not tell us what the outcome is going to be. I don't think there's much tea leaf reading there. What it tells us is that Republicans, if they are facing a bigger deficit, as we see where states are available data, according to party registration, facing a bigger deficit in the early vote, they need to make up more ground on Election Day. Now their voters are reliable Election Day voters. They have proven to be. So do they have the turnout machine to do that or not? That becomes the question we will wait to answer on Tuesday.

The issue of a blue wave was also addressed on CNN's FAREED ZAKARIA GPS:

FAREED ZAKARIA, CNN ANCHOR: Many are predicting a blue wave in Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections, as polling shows that the Democrats are likely to take the House and may even flip the Senate, something that was hard to imagine even earlier this year.  Joining me now is Frances Lee. She is a professor of politics and public affairs at Princeton University.  Professor Lee, welcome. So something I wanted to ask you, which is to step back for a moment and say, if this swing takes place, what's striking to me is the degree of this back and forth over the last, you know, 25 years. I mean, I think about presidential elections, right? And since 2000, I think it's fair to say that there has not been a single election other than Obama's '08 election in the wake of the global financial crisis that could qualify as a kind of thumping victory, let alone a landslide.  Everything has been very close. The two parties go back and forth. First, do you agree? And what is the consequence you think of this kind of constantly going back and forth?

FRANCES LEE, POLITICS AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS PROFESSOR, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY: Well, this constant back and forth, the seesaw pattern in national politics, makes it very difficult for the parties to negotiate to agreement on large issues in American politics. The challenge is that the disadvantaged party at any given point in time can easily anticipate being back in power soon. So why cut a deal on some on -- you know, some large, important  pressing issue now, when you'd be in a better position in a short period of time after the next set of elections? So this creates kind of a policy stalemate around large issues as the party with less power calculates future advantage. This pattern tends to drive a preoccupation with politics. Between elections, the permanent campaign is how that's often referenced that both parties are looking to the next elections with anxiety. The party in power knows that that power is held tenuously. The party out of power expects to be able to get back in.
And so they work very hard to try to drive favorable narratives in the media for their party. That means denouncing the other party vociferously. That contributes to the toxic partisanship that's characteristic of our era because both parties are seeking advantage in this highly competitive environment.

ZAKARIA: And this is unusual, right? Because there's always been this, what is it? Samuel Lubell, the sun and moon theory of American political parties that there's always been one party that's been dominant, the sun, and the other one that's been less dominant, the moon, and as a result, there was a stable relationship and you could negotiate public policy. I mean, you think about the period when the Democrats were dominant after Franklin Roosevelt for many, many decades. Before that, the Republican Party was dominant for many, many decades. You know, from the 1880s to the 1932 election. So we haven't seen a lot of American history where you have this constant, as you put it, a permanent campaign because everyone thinks they can win the next time.  Do you see any signs that we're moving out of this kind of period and back to a sun and moon period of American politics?

LEE: I see no such signs that we're breaking out of this protracted stalemate between the parties. It is historically unusual, as you look back across American political history. You know, we haven't seen a period where the two parties have been this evenly matched for this long. But I don't see a sign that we're breaking out of it yet. And, you know, even if there is a wave election this year, we need to see the Democrats retain power, you know, we -- you know, after the next set of elections before you'd be able to begin to pronounce a new era in American politics.

ZAKARIA: So if the election goes as predicted, do you imagine that there could be some bipartisanship or the Democrats could find some Republican support on measures to in some way curtail the prosecution of the Iran war. This is a very unpopular war. It's the most unpopular war in American history. Republicans are paying the price for it. So if Democrats were to say, you know, pass a resolution in the House saying no more funds for the war, do you think Republicans would go along because you'd need a veto proof majority since Trump would obviously veto it?

LEE: Well, the funds are being drawn down already. One thing that's quite notable about the Iran war thus far is that no war supplemental has yet cleared the Congress, despite Republican control of House and Senate at present. So they -- the administration requested a supplemental. But Congress has not produced one. So if funds don't get authorized after the elections during the lame duck period, the administration will have to be going to a Democratic controlled Congress asking for funding.

What happens if Dems get a majority in one or both houses of Congress? NBC's MEET THE PRESS raised the issue to Illinois Governor JB Pritzker:

KRISTEN WELKER: Let me ask you about this big debate unfolding inside the Democratic Party, If Democrats do in fact win back control of Congress, the discussion over whether they would move to impeach President Trump for a third time. Some of your fellow Illinois friends have said that they don’t think it’s a good idea. Former Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel, Senator Tammy Duckworth says it would backfire. Do you agree with them that another impeachment would backfire against Democrats?

GOV. JB PRITZKER: Well here’s what I think. There need to be hearings, because there’s so much corruption. The corruption is even at a higher level than the, you know than the costs and cruelty that Donald Trump is bringing on the country —

KRISTEN WELKER: So hearings, not impeachment, Governor? Hearings, not impeachment?

GOV. JB PRITZKER: Well, the -- the hearings will uncover things, and then some decisions will have to get made about that. But the American public doesn’t know the extent of the corruption. I think many of us paying very close attention do. But the American public needs to see what the corruption is so that the Congress can pass laws, and possibly even an amendment to the Constitution, that limits the, well, I would just call it, the massive, massive profiteering that the president of the United States is able to do and is doing now with his family and his close friends.

Most exchanges on these Sunday chat & chews don't age well. Over time, politicians tend not to stick to their words. But today saw an exchange that almost immediately fell apart. The exchange that didn't age well? It took place this morning on NBC's MEET THE PRESS:

KRISTEN WELKER: Thank you so much for being here in person. Let’s start with the dramatic developments out of Michigan. You have this last-minute intra-party fighting between Abdul El-Sayed and his challenger in the primary, Haley Stevens. She has criticized his views on Israel. She’s upset that he hasn’t disavowed an ad that he had nothing to do with that she says was antisemitic. Let me ask you, could this cost Democrats the seat in Michigan?

REP. JAMIE RASKIN: No. I spoke last night to Haley Stevens, and I spoke to Abdul as well, and my wonderful friend Haley Stevens wants me to represent to you and everybody else I talk to that she is voting straight down the line on the Democratic ticket, and she’s going to be celebrating with Democrats across the country when we win on Tuesday night. And this is inside the Beltway, inside baseball imbroglio, so I believe that we’re going to have a landslide in Michigan for lots of candidates, like Callie Barr in the 1st District, like Sean McCann. I think Michigan’s going to be in great shape. And the Democrats have really never been more unified or more focused, because everybody understands the big picture here. Are we going to have progress under Democratic government, or are we going to have continuing corruption under authoritarian chaos with Donald Trump and all of his MAGA followers? That’s the big picture here. Haley gets it. Abdul gets it. And I think what we’re going to see on Tuesday night is a reflection of that.

Shortly after Raskin had made his statements regarding his "wonderful friend Haley Stevens" voting straight Democrat on her ballot, Stevens endorsed Mike Rogers. Tim Balk and Reid J. Epstein (NEW YORK TIMES) report:

Facing a bleak electoral outlook two days before Election Day, Republicans received a dash of positive news Sunday in Michigan, where the Democrat who lost a primary fight to Dr. Abdul El-Sayed endorsed his Republican opponent for Senate and deepened an intraparty rift.

The surprise endorsement of Mike Rogers by Representative Haley Stevens outraged many of her fellow Democrats, who condemned her for potentially endangering a crucial Senate seat. Republicans were hoping it could provide some momentum in the face of widespread voter discontent with President Trump, as reflected in a final poll from The New York Times and Siena University released Sunday night.

[. . .]

Ms. Stevens’s endorsement in Michigan rocked the race for a seat that is Republicans’ best chance to flip a seat. “I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today,” Ms. Stevens said in a video posted on social media Sunday afternoon. “I don’t belong in Abdul’s campaign.”

Democrats were furious over Ms. Stevens’s reversal — Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, called it a “despicable betrayal” — but Dr. El-Sayed told reporters, “None of this matters.”

Stevens' betrayal was covered on CNN NEWSROOM:

FREDRICKA WHITFIELD: Thank you so much for joining me this Sunday. I'm Fredricka Whitfield. Election Day in America is just two days away. We're following a major developing story out of Michigan. Democratic Congresswoman Haley Stevens breaking with her party today and endorsing GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers over her former primary rival, Abdul El-Sayed, in a stunning last-minute flip. [. . .] All right, let's get right to CNN correspondent Brian Todd at an auto workers union event in Detroit. And Brian, I mean, key to so many thoughts today is what happened in Michigan today with the Democrat throwing her support behind the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate. And, you know, the response coming from Abdul El-Sayed, I mean, he says, you know what, it doesn't really matter. He's not thinking about Haley Stevens, but he's thinking about families who are struggling to get food on the table. So, what is the message from where you are right now?

BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Fredricka, the message from here and elsewhere around the Detroit area and Michigan and the message really coming from Michigan's top Democratic powerbrokers, the fallout from Haley Stevens decision has really been more vitriolic among the top Democratic powerbrokers in the state of Michigan. And by that, I mean a Michigan Democratic Party chair, Curtis Hertel, and also Congresswoman Debbie Dingell. She is one of the most senior Democratic figures in the entire state of Michigan. She has been trying to broker kind of a peace agreement between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens. She's trying to broker some solidarity between the two of them for the past several days. And she is pretty much stunned by this decision from Haley Stevens. I caught up with Congresswoman Dingell at this event just a short time ago. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. DEBBIE DINGELL (D), MICHIGAN: Like, I was stunned since she had told me she wasn't doing that last night at midnight. But, you know, it's just drama that doesn't matter. She has actually helped Abdul. His fundraising is up. People in Detroit are outraged. I just want to focus on what the issues are on Tuesday and remind people what's at stake, the cost of living, a broken health care system, and the corruption in Washington.

TODD: Does she have a future in the Democratic Party here in Michigan or anywhere?

DINGELL: Unfortunately, she seriously hurt herself.

TODD: OK.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TODD: That was also the refrain from the Michigan Democratic Party chair, Curtis Hertel, who we spoke to just a short time ago before I talked to Haley Stevens. Curtis Hertel maybe even more vitriolic against Haley Stevens than Ms. Dingell was. Hertel saying that basically, she betrayed the Democratic Party, that she betrayed her constituents, that she has no future in the Democratic Party. So, this has been the fallout, at least from top Michigan Democrats to this, Fredricka, has just been really extraordinary here. Of course, both Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed kind of trying to play it down. Haley Stevens saying, hey, I'm just one vote, that 90 percent of my other votes are going to be for Democrats. Abdul El-Sayed saying, I don't really think about Haley Stevens or Mike Rogers, I'm focusing on the issues. But clearly, you know, the behind the scenes vitriol and the maneuvering behind the scenes here in Michigan and the continued fallout is really palpable. We're going to, of course, see in the next couple of days how that plays out in the voting booth. But, you know, it really has been just a very dramatic morning, afternoon, and evening here in the Detroit area.

Let's wind down with this from Senator Adam Schiff's office:

Washington, D.C. – Today, U.S. Senators Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla (both-D-Calif.), members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, released the following statements following recent oversight of big tech social media companies’ efforts to combat election disinformation and misinformation.

“Social media companies hold enormous power over the content voters see. Americans’ right to vote shouldn’t be undermined by deceptive election information online like false dates, locations, times, and methods for voting. And it is platforms’ responsibility to address inaccurate content where it exists. In recent days, my staff has met with representatives of these companies to hear about their efforts to tackle false content about our elections and to combat this danger to our democracy, and I appreciate the efforts some of the companies are taking to help prevent foreign election influence operations. However, it appears that not every company is taking seriously the false information online about voting – which in some cases continues to be disseminated by the Trump Administration with the intention to interfere with our election system. I will continue pressing for commitments where they should do more, including by acting on their existing policies to remove false content about voting,” said Senator Schiff.

“The Trump Administration has gutted efforts to protect voters from election interference, but social media companies still have a responsibility to combat election mis- and disinformation. So far, their responses are incomplete and raise serious questions about who’s protecting American elections from malign influence operations. Social media companies must take concrete steps to identify and address false claims about voting, shut down foreign influence operations, and enforce their policies consistently. With the midterms underway, I’ll keep pressing for answers and meaningful action to protect voters and our democracy,” said Senator Padilla.

Background: On October 1, 2026, Senators Schiff and Padilla pressed the top executives of the largest social media companies about their plans to combat misinformation and disinformation on their platforms ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The Senators requested answers on the companies’ policies to identify and respond to election mis and disinformation, what actions they will be taking for the 2026 midterm elections, the steps to ensure that the Supreme Court’s mail-in ballot ruling is not subject to mis- and disinformation campaigns that undermine the integrity of mail-in voting, and whether they’ve received requests from the Trump admin relating to election security.

Following their inquiry over the past month, staff from the Senators’ offices met with companies to obtain more information about their plans, and what more must be done ahead of the upcoming election.

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The following sites updated: