Saturday, October 09, 2010

Military coup?

Iraqi political and security sources in Baghdad have spoken of their fears of either a military coup taking place in Iraq or a militant Shiite militia overthrowing the government.
An Iraqi official, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat from Baghdad, revealed that "important Iraqi political leaders have strengthened the security of their headquarters, offices, and homes" adding that they have also "restricted their movements both inside and outside of Baghdad." The source claimed that this came "following advice or warnings from Iraqi security and US [military] commanders in Iraq."
The Iraqi official, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat on the condition of anonymity, said that "we are not ruling out a military coup taking place especially as the political history of Iraq is full of military coups, and in light of the decision of the commander-in-chief of the Iraqi armed forces, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, to surround Baghdad with military forces…and to exclude other leaders from positions of direct responsibility of the movements of the army, as well as the arrest of senior officers in Baghdad, Mosul, Diyali, Tikrit. This gives rise to fears of a military coup in the event of al-Maliki not being able to remain as prime minister."

The above is from Maad Fayad's "Fears of Military Coup Surface in Iraq" (Asharq Alawsat Newspaper) and India Daily adds, "An Iraqi security source has revealed that U.S. forces have given orders for U.S. officers to join key military units in Baghdad as advisers due to fears of an attempt to overthrow the government." Earlier this week, Mark Schlachtenhaufen (Edmond Sun) reported, "Iraq is entering a crucial period, which could include a coup triggered by disenchantment and frustation with the political class, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist [Anthony Shadid] said Monday." Shadid heads the New York Times' Baghdad Bureau and he spoke earlier this week at the University of Central Oklahoma. Meanwhile Ahmed Chalabi was in DC recently. As Steven Lee Myers (New York Times) observes, Iraqi politicians have become the Iraq Globetrotters:

A leading Shiite cleric, Ammar al-Hakim, was in Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday, while the Sunni vice president, Tariq al-Hashimi, flew to Istanbul. And Ayad Allawi, the champion of secular politics across the Shiite-Sunni divide who is losing ground in his campaign to be recognized as the rightful prime minister, went to Damascus and Cairo seeking Arab backing for his quest.
The Kurdish region’s president, Massoud Barzani, who emerged from the election a political kingmaker, was in Vienna, while Moktada al-Sadr, the radical cleric whose followers now wield more political influence than ever, worked the phones from his exile in Qom, Iran.

Everyone scrambles to shore up support and the political stalemate continues.

March 7th, Iraq concluded Parliamentary elections. The Guardian's editorial board noted last month, "These elections were hailed prematurely by Mr Obama as a success, but everything that has happened since has surely doused that optimism in a cold shower of reality." 163 seats are needed to form the executive government (prime minister and council of ministers). When no single slate wins 163 seats (or possibly higher -- 163 is the number today but the Parliament added seats this election and, in four more years, they may add more which could increase the number of seats needed to form the executive government), power-sharing coalitions must be formed with other slates, parties and/or individual candidates. (Eight Parliament seats were awarded, for example, to minority candidates who represent various religious minorities in Iraq.) Ayad Allawi is the head of Iraqiya which won 91 seats in the Parliament making it the biggest seat holder. Second place went to State Of Law which Nouri al-Maliki, the current prime minister, heads. They won 89 seats. Nouri made a big show of lodging complaints and issuing allegations to distract and delay the certification of the initial results while he formed a power-sharing coalition with third place winner Iraqi National Alliance -- this coalition still does not give them 163 seats. They are claiming they have the right to form the government. In 2005, Iraq took four months and seven days to pick a prime minister. It's seven months and two days and counting.

Waleed Ibrahim (Reuters) quotes an Iraqiya official stating today, "Iraqiya's decision not to take part in a government headed by Maliki is final and irreversible." Tariq Alhomayed (Asharq Alawsat Newspaper) agues:

The ordeal of forming the next Iraqi government, with its inconsistencies, concessions, deals, and Iranian influence, means one important thing: The next Iraqi Prime Minister, whether it is Nuri al-Maliki, or otherwise, will be a restricted one, with limited powers, a man sitting on a chair with four weak legs. This is because any alliance will not be based on mutual interests, but instead on pressure and overseas influence, namely from Iran. This is what Moqtada al-Sadr confirmed in his statement when he announced his acceptance of al-Maliki's nomination for a second term in office, acknowledging that pressure is normal in politics and that everybody is "trying to move their bread closer to the fire" [Iraqi proverb meaning everybody is acting in their own interests].
Therefore, the Iraqi Prime Minister will be a lame duck, as politicians say. The Iraqi Prime Minister will not assume his position until he has exhausted all of his bargaining chips, offering one concession after another. This means that the Prime Minister will be weakened, both in the short and long term. There is now way of knowing the full repercussions of course, because a weak Iraqi Prime Minister in Iraq is just as dangerous as an authoritarian Prime Minister.

Danger?

Bombings?

Sahar Issa (McClatchy Newspapers) reports a Baghdad roadside bombing wounded four people, a Baghad sticky bombing injured four people and a Diyala Province bombing of police officer Ali Muhammed's home -- no one known to be hurt or killed in the bombing.

Shootings?

Sahar Issa (McClatchy Newspapers) reports an Abu Ghraib home invasion in which 1 family members was killed and four more wounded, a Baghdad drive-by that killed 2 people and left a third injured, 2 Falluja home invasions in which 3 brothers were killed and a fourth was wounded -- all four were employed of the Ministry of Higher Education and, dropping back to Friday, an assault on a Baghdad checkpoint in which six people were wounded. Reuters adds a Garma assault in which 3 people were killed -- the three were brothers who worked for the Ministry of Culture.

Today John Lennon would have turned 70-years-old. David Edwards (Daily Mirror) reports:


Yoko Ono wells up when she recalls the moment John Lennon's spirit returned to their home days after he was murdered in 1980.
She says: "John's presence is very much around me and in our apartment. I felt it right around the time he died.
"We had three cats - Sasha, Misha and Charo. When he was alive they would go to him whenever the kitchen door opened.
"One night right after he died, the door opened - and there was no wind - and the cats immediately went to the door to wait for him. They were never the same afterwards. They'd hide in corners or behind the chairs.
"When John's songs came on the radio I'd go to switch it off because I couldn't stand it. But all the cats would jump on the radio, remembering his voice. It was so painful."

Briefly, three people e-mailed wanting to know about the Iraqi pipelines and why we aren't covering them? Iraq is announcing one pipeline after another . . . empty words unless they get investments. They can't afford them. They're seeking foreign investment on them and must have that investment to actually build pipelines -- as opposed to just announcing them -- which is a detail that's repeatedly left out of news stories on this topic and that's why we've ignored it.

The e-mail address for this site is common_ills@yahoo.com.





the edmond sun
mark schlachtenhaufen
anthony shadid





















Posted by at