Nagourney & Elder's "Americans Show Clear Concerns on Bush Agenda" is still the topic. This front page story from Tuesday's print edition can be found here: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/23/national/23poll.html and we're focusing on a paragraph again:
The poll found that 55 percent of Mr. Kerry's voters said that Mr. Bush's voters did not share their views and morals; 54 percent of Mr. Bush's voters said the same thing of those who voted for Mr. Kerry.
Okay, here are the sections from The New York Times/CBS News Poll November 18-21, 2004 (available as a side bar on the link above in PDF form; printed, it's 35 pages):
QUESTIONS 72 AND 73 ASKED OF KERRY VOTERS.
72. Thinking for a moment about the people who voted for George W. Bush which of these comes closer to your view: 1. People who voted for George W. Bush feel differently than I do about politics, but they probably share many of my other values and goals; OR 2. People who voted for George W. Bush feel differently than I do about politics, and they probably do NOT share many of my other values or goals, either.
Share values & goals Do not DK/NA
11/18-21/04 40 55 4
73. Do you think people who voted for George W. Bush have the same moral values as you do, or not?
Yes, have same No, do not DK/NA
11/18-21/04 47 44 9
Okay, question 72 is asking them to choose between "1" or "2"? And then in question seventy-three they are basically asked the first part of question 72 again (without the second part offered)?
Let's move on to the questions for Bush voters (which follow the same pattern):
QUESTIONS 74 AND 75 ASKED OF BUSH VOTERS
74. Thinking for a moment about the people who voted for John Kerry, which of these comes closer to your view: 1. People who voted for John Kerry feel differently than I do about politics, but they probably share many of my other values and goals; OR 2. People who voted for John Kerry feel differently than I do about politics, and they probably do NOT share many of my other values or goals, either.
Share Values & goals Do Not DK/NA
11/18-21/04 42 54 4
75. Do you think people who voted for John Kerry have the same moral values as you do, or not?
Yes, have same Do Not DK/NA
11/18-21/04 50 39 11
Those are the results of the poll -- as confusing as they are.
Let's go back to the paragraph from the paper:
The poll found that 55 percent of Mr. Kerry's voters said that Mr. Bush's voters did not share their views and morals; 54 percent of Mr. Bush's voters said the same thing of those who voted for Mr. Kerry.
There's nothing to indicate that Kerry respondents were asked only either question 72 or 73 (if it happened, the report doesn't indicate it) and there's nothing to indicate that Bush respondents were asked either question 74 or 75. It appears each group was asked two questions (72 & 73 for Kerry supporters; 74 & 75 for Bush supporters).
Yes, 55% of Kerry voters said that Bush voters did not share their morals [the word "views" is not mentioned in the questions as anything you think the other candidate's voters may or may not share; they are asked their view of whether values and goals are shared in questions 72 & 74 but they are never asked about shared "views" within what they are evaluating]. They also answered question 73: "Do you think people who voted for George W. Bush have the same moral values as you do, or not?" And here the response to "do not" isn't 55%, it's dropped to 44%. The 44% isn't mentioned in the story, only the larger number is. Was question 73 an effort to see if the respondents were paying attention?
If some got question 72 and some got 73, the poll report should indicate that. And if by some strange reason, that's the case, then percentage in each that adds up to 100% actually means less since some people answered one question and some the other. Again, I don't think that's the case. There's no indication of that. But were it the case, then Nagourney & Elder should be telling us that (for instance) 55% of 31% of Kerry voters . . .
To move on to the Bush voters. The article/story tells us that 54% of Bush voters believe that "[p]eople who voted for John Kerry feel differently than I do about politics, and they probably do NOT share many of my other values or goals, either." But that's question 74 only. In question 75 (to Bush voters) 39% "think people who voted for John Kerry" don't "have the same moral values as you do." Only the 54% figure made it into the article.
What's the deal with the responses to questions 73 & 75? Why aren't they in the story/article? They are in the polling report.
The polling report indicates that Bush voters were all asked two questions (74 & 75) and responded in some manner. But only one figure (the largest, to question 74) appears in the story/article. It's the exact same thing with Kerry voters (the largest which is from question 72). Did Nagourney & Elder decide to play "evens"? Did they flip a coin to decide which responses to include?
There may be an explanation for this. And I could very easily be missing it. (Any thoughts e-mail me at common_ills@yahoo.com please.) And I'm assuming that the polling report is correct, that this cut and dry questions and then responses is accurate. (There's a date typo on page 21, question forty, second column. I'm the last to harp on typos and only mention it here because it's the only typo I've discovered. The date listed as "2/10-13/03" appears on page 20 as "12/10-13/03." I believe the page 20 date -- "12/10-13/03" -- is the correct one due to the order in which the dates are listed -- otherwise the chart skips out of order for that, and only that, date.)
I don't see how entire questions (with responses) could be typos (referring to questions 73 &75). They aren't as large/extreme in the "do not" response. Is that why they weren't included?
Should both have been included? Should Nagourney and Elder have added the two together, then divided by two to get an average figure? I don't know. I just know that the data on the polling report suggests there were two questions asked of each group and two answers given. But only one answer made the article/story. The one that strongly backs up their "point of polarization in American politics." Is that why the larger figures were used and the other two ignored?
