Monday, May 31, 2021

Iraq: If the US, then Israel?

Seth J. Frantzman (JERUSALEM POST) notes:


A scoop at The Washington Post by John Hudson and Louisa Loveluck revealed that Iranian-backed militias were able to target a “secret CIA hangar” using a drone in April. This attack hit a hangar in Erbil in the autonomous Kurdistan region.

This is a major escalation and shows careful planning and complex know-how by the Iranian regime and its militias in Iraq. It means that Iran was able to transfer the drone itself to Iraq and gather the intelligence on the apparent location of this secret site, which is inside a known US facility, and precisely set the drone to strike it.

[. . .] 

The drone attack alarmed the US according to the report. It has led to questions about the warehouse and whether Iran knew specifically who was running the building. Remains of the drone were recovered after the attacks. The article says that the drone was used a  new method after years in which pro-Iran militias used rockets, such as the 107mm.

The “evolving drone threat” is a major concern in Iraq. “The drone’s flight was tracked to within 10 miles of the site, but its path was then as it moved into a civilian flight path, the coalition official said,” according to the report. “Preliminary analysis suggested it was made in Iran.”

The White House was unnerved. The facility was covert and the attack was sophisticated. The April 14 attack was the first major drone attack by the pro-Iran militias in Iraq. However, they have provided Kataib Hezbollah with drones in the past to strike at Saudi Arabia in May 2019 and again in January 2021. Another drone was used to target Al-Asad base in May 2021.


As we've long noted, the CIA has its largest presence (outside the US) in Iraq.  And that's before you figure in the land right inside the border of Turkey that the Turkish government donated to the US to set up that CIA base (donated during Bully Boy Bush's second term).  

The story is news to some and being treated as such -- 'the CIA has a presence in Iraq!'


But it's a bigger story than is being acknowledged.  That's, in part, because the CIA presence in Iraq is so much larger than just one base.  It's also a bigger story because of more recent developments/


If their intelligence is strong enough to figure out a CIA site in Iraq, then why it would be so far fetched for them to figure out an Israeli one?


Dropping back to the April 14th snapshot:


What did or didn't happen in Iraq?  That's a news cycle any day but especially today due to claims regarding an alleged Israeli base in Iraq.  


Iran's MEHR NEWS AGENCY states:

A facility affiliated with the Israeli regime’s Mossad spy agency had been attacked by "unknown resistance forces" in the north of the country killing, Iraq's Sabereen News quoted sources late on Tuesday.

The Iraqi media said the attack resulted in the death and injury of a “number of Israeli forces,” dealing a “heavy blow” to the regime and its spy agency, Press TV reported.

The sources did not provide further details on the location of the attack and the extent of damage, however, Sabereen said, “Tomorrow, we’ll share some pictures of the operation.”

[. . .]


So what did or did not happen?


At this point, it's really not clear.


The attack, without details, does seem a little out there and a bit of wish fulfilment for those who don't care for the Israeli government (and//or the illegal occupation of Palestinian lands).  Is it possible?  It's very possible.


Many spy agencies are in Iraq.  Besides the base the CIA has in Turkey on the edge of Iraq -- a deal Bully Boy Bush made with the government of Turkey many years ago -- the CIA remains on the ground in Iraq.  The CIA is a US spy agency (not the only one).  At one point, after the drawdown, the CIA's presence on the ground in Iraq was greater than the US' military presence.  The UK's MI6 remains active in Iraq -- this despite the disaster they had during the second term of Bully Boy Bush when they got caught -- with one of them getting arrested -- posing as Iraqis in order to carry out attacks that would then create tensions and outrage.  (The response from the UK to this?  Deny -- oh, and attack the facility that was holding the MI6 agent.)  The Israeli spy agency is the Mossad.  It is very likely that they spy in Iraq -- it's a given in fact.  Do they do so via outsourcing?  Very likely but they also have agents on the ground.


Do they have a base?


When they say a base was attacked, we're picturing a big facility.  It could be more like a cut-out and most likely would be.  Something that three to five people would be in and out, not like a military base.  Again, that's very likely.


If the Mossad was to set up a base in Iraq, the Kurdistan Region would be the best place for it because they could depend upon the most support in that region.  The Kurdish Regional Government and the Israeli government have strong ties.  (Israel was one of the few nations not to condem the non-binding referendum that the KRG held on autonomy.)  


So is an attack possible?


Yes.



Isn't that the logical procession?  In May, we learn the Iran attacked a CIA base in Iraq, don't we naturally return to the April claims that Iran attacked a Mossad base in Iraq?


Seems the logical move.



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