In Iraq, there is still no prime minister-designate. None. The elections were October 10th, it is now almost February and nothing.
AHLULBAYT NEWS AGENCY has an interesting analysis of what's going on. The wording that stood out most to me was that the "Sadrist Movement has delcared itself the winner of the election." Yes, they did do that. But they couldn't have done it without the help of the western press which has rushed to crown Moqtada the winner even though he will not be prime minister and has no seat in the Parliament.
The type of government he's attempting to create, as ABNA notes, is one that can easily crumble because it ''is not durable and there are always grounds for fracture." He wants a majority government which would do away with Iraq's previous power-sharing governments. This only weakens him further because, should he be victorious and be able to decide who will be prime minister, that person is not beholden to him. If that person goes against Moqtada on some issue, he or she will find huge support within Parliament. Moqtada won't be able to force him out. It'll be like Moqtada's 2012 efforts to force Nouri al-Maliki out as prime minister.
Ah, yes, Nouri. The person the western press refuses to name. The former prime minister and forever thug wants to be prime minister again. A key part of the analysis:
At the second level, al-Sadr declared that Nouri al-Maliki and his State of the Law coalition are red line when it comes to a new cabinet and he more than once told all of parties in the Shiite Coordination Framework (SCF) he would never join a government in which the ex-PM participates. It seems that al-Sadr has delayed to now the reckoning with al-Maliki for his actions against the Sadr-led Mahdi Army in 2008, and is using that feud as a pretext to disagreement with the SCF.
Can he form a government without Nouri. Possibly.
It's interesting that ABNA didn't note the arrest warrant. That predates 2008. And Nouri, once he became prime minister in 2006, used that warrant to keep Moqtada in check.
In February 2007, when his followers were denying that Moqtada had left Iraq for Iran (he had indeed left), NPR's MORNING EDITION featured a discussion between Renee Montagne and Anne Garrels which included:
MONTAGNE: It's maybe something to remember that three years ago the Iraqi government issued an arrest warrant for Sadr in connection with the murder of another Shiite cleric. Is it possible he could be arrested now, at this point?
GARRELS: No. From what I understand, he is on what's called the no-touch list. U.S. officials understand that capturing or killing Sadr could just make the situation worse. It could turn him into a martyr. But Prime Minister Maliki has lifted his protection of Sadr's aides and militiamen, who were alleged to have carried out kidnappings and killings. A few months ago Maliki balked every time U.S. forces arrested somebody linked to Sadr. Now, U.S. forces have killed or detained hundreds of people from the movement. Last week U.S. and Iraqi forces arrested the deputy health minister, a key Sadr ally. They alleged he was behind killings and kidnappings as well as funneling millions of dollars in government funds to the Mehdi militias. So Sadr's not touchable, but his people are.
In March 2010, AFP noted, "Al-Sadr has been the subject of an arrest warrant since 2003." Though the western press today likes to pretend otherwise, the arrest warrent existed and was reported on -- by the same outlets that now act like it never happened.
As Moqtada dithers, Nouri is ready to pounce on any issue to advance himself:
ISIS, it should be remembered, came to power because of Nouri and his second term as prime minister. That's when he went full on crazy and targeted the Sunnis publicly. Prior to that, in his first term, he largely relied upon his secret prisons and torture chambers. His second term was about publicly going after them. I see a former CIA officer is Tweeting about just that today.
The #Sunni community began fighting back against the oppression, marginalization, and assassination campaigns that Nouri al-Maliki’s government carried out against the Sunnis...
opslens.com/the-u-s-post-w #Iraq #writingcommunity #ISIS #news #ForeignAffairs
It happened. Before the world's eyes, if you were paying attention at the time. Barack Obama and Joe Biden had given Nouri that second term -- they used The Erbil Agreement to overturn the Iraqi people's votes. They knew what Nouri was -- Hillary had already called Nouri out publicly as a "thug" in an open Senate hearing in 2008. She was not the only US senator using that term. But Sammy Power swore that Nouri was the way and Barack listened to her. So you had the attacks on the Sunni not only increase in volume but increase also in the public nature of them and you had the rise of ISIS. Eventually, you had cities -- including Mosul -- seized by ISIS.
Now Nouri's calling out someone else's handling of security and their response to ISIS.
If the press had any desire to provide context, they could be covering this at length. But that would require admitting that Nouri remains a power player in Iraq which made lead their consumers to wonder why they failed to cover Nouri in the lead up to the October 10th elections?
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