Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Will al-Sadr have a role, will Syria?

Alsumaria TV reports today, "Head of the Islamic Supreme Council Ammar Al Hakim’s visits to Iraq’s neighboring countries aim to hold talks with Arab leaders and brief them over the situation in Iraq, the Islamic Supreme Council's media advisor Bassem Al Awadi told Alsumaria." Harry Smith (CBS' The Morning Show) offers today, "This news is amazing on a number of levels if true. [Moqtada] Al Sadr helped fan the flames of what turned out to be close to all out war between Sunnis and Shiites back in 2006 when as many as hundred civilians a day were getting killed in Iraq." What's everyone talking about? The political stalemate and talk that it may be nearing an end as a result of al-Sadr backing Nouri al-Maliki. Jane Arraf (Christian Science Monitor) explains, "As the country lurched into the history books with one of the longest delays in government formation ever after holding elections, followers of hard-line Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr announced they had withdrawn their opposition to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and would back him for a second term."

March 7th, Iraq concluded Parliamentary elections. The Guardian's editorial board noted last month, "These elections were hailed prematurely by Mr Obama as a success, but everything that has happened since has surely doused that optimism in a cold shower of reality." 163 seats are needed to form the executive government (prime minister and council of ministers). When no single slate wins 163 seats (or possibly higher -- 163 is the number today but the Parliament added seats this election and, in four more years, they may add more which could increase the number of seats needed to form the executive government), power-sharing coalitions must be formed with other slates, parties and/or individual candidates. (Eight Parliament seats were awarded, for example, to minority candidates who represent various religious minorities in Iraq.) Ayad Allawi is the head of Iraqiya which won 91 seats in the Parliament making it the biggest seat holder. Second place went to State Of Law which Nouri al-Maliki, the current prime minister, heads. They won 89 seats. Nouri made a big show of lodging complaints and issuing allegations to distract and delay the certification of the initial results while he formed a power-sharing coalition with third place winner Iraqi National Alliance -- this coalition still does not give them 163 seats. They are claiming they have the right to form the government. In 2005, Iraq took four months and seven days to pick a prime minister. It's six months and twenty-nine days with no government formed.

As Sam Dagher (Wall St. Journal) notes, the US lodged their objection to al-Sadr being part of the government yesterday via US Ambassador to Iraq James Jeffrey. Whether or not this is a deal breaker remains to be seen but al-Sadr is not the only one being objected to in recent days. Pakistan's Daily Times notes, "Ninevah Gov. Atheel al-Nujaifi said in an Associated Press interview Sunday that Iraq is “headed for a dictatorship” if Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki secures a second term. His warning shows the serious challenges to US-led efforts at bringing Iraq’s rival groups together in a unity government to end a nearly seven-month political impasse." Sami Moubayed (Asia Times) surveys the landscape and notes there is no done deal at this point and feels Syria will be a major player: "In theory, neither Saudi Arabia nor Iran is 100% committed to either Maliki or Allawi. Iran is very keen however, on not making Allawi premier in as much as Saudi Arabia insists that it will not tolerate another four years of Maliki, who it sees as a sectarian politician who greatly harmed the interests of Sunnis. This is where Syria's say comes into play, given its excellent relations with Sunnis and Shi'ites, creating a balance that neither Saudi Arabia nor Iran enjoy. Syria has the ear of Hakim and Muqtada of the INA and also is very influential with Allawi and Sunnis."


Meanwhile the editorial board of the Washington Post frets that if Congress doesn't fork over all the money the administration wants to spend on Iraq, Iraq's so-called 'democracy' or whatever will fail. Newsflash: Democracy doesn't depend on cash. Forget that the GAO found that Nouri's sitting on billions (the Post has forgotten), democracy is made by citizen participation, not by money. Iraq has been a sinkhole for US tax payer dollars and at a time when Barack's "Fiscal Commission" is making noises about slashing Social Security and veterans benefits, forking over more money to Iraq is insane. That money needs to go towards helping people suffering in the United States from the Great Recession. What the Post confesses, if you read between the lines, is that conventional wisdom is puppet Nouri will be re-installed and he can't hold onto the position he and the other exiles were installed into by the US government without US money to control and attack the people of Iraq. Democracy doesn't depend on money. During the Great Depression, the US didn't stop being a democracy. It's really juvenile -- not very mature, not very 'fiscal,' -- to claim that the US needs to waste more tax payer monies during a recession. At Politico, a War Hawk and former Bushie stomp their feet over the same issue. They really are greedy, aren't they? Robert Jensen (War Is A Crime) notes:

Today the United States spends as much on the work of war as the rest of the world combined, and we are the planet’s largest arms dealer. Professor Catherine Lutz of the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University reports in her book The Bases of Empire that we maintain 909 military facilities in 46 countries and overseas U.S. territories, and we have more than 190,000 troops and 115,000 civilians working at those sites. That’s in addition to U.S. bases, military personnel, and contractors occupying Iraq and Afghanistan.
The military is there to project power, not promote peace. We regularly use these destructive forces, especially in the Middle East, home to the largest and most accessible energy reserves. Flimsy cover stories about terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, or self-indulgent tales about U.S. benevolence toward the people of the region, cannot obscure the reality of empire. The invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq were unlawful, in direct violation of international law and the U.S. Constitution, but such details are irrelevant to empires.
Terrorism is real, of course, as are weapons of mass destruction. Law enforcement, diplomacy, and limited uses of military force need to be vigorously pursued through appropriate regional and international organizations to lessen the threats. Most of the world supports such reasonable and rational measures.
In its global policy -- especially in the Middle East -- U.S. policymakers prefer force, not only though invasion but also by backing the most repressive Arab regimes in those regions and unconditional support for Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine. In the short term, this cynical and brutal strategy has given the United States considerable influence over the flow of oil and oil profits.


Kelly McEvers (NPR's Morning Edition) reports today on the re-emergence of al Qaeda in Iraq. Speaking with an Iraqi who studies the issue, McEvers establishes the point that 'cutting off the head' doesn't kill the group. (He tells her al Qaeda in Mesopotamia is in yet another stage.) What he's saying is in keeping with any political theory and yet the US government didn't grasp that under Bush and they don't under Barack. In fact, the current drone attacks on Pakistan will most likely mean terrorism remains a dominant force for many decades. (Terrorism is a response. It is not an initiating action.)

And as we noted yesterday, Kimberly Wilder (OntheWilderSide) reports that Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones is not currently invited for this October 10th broadcast and he is calling on Meet The Press to open the gates. A copy of the letter he wrote is posted and people are encouraged to write letters to Meet The Press -- BUT, it's too late for letters. You can send the message "Let LeAlan debate!" by calling 202-885-4598 or you can e-mail Meet The Press by clicking here. But it is really too late to count on the postal service to get your hand written letter delivered in time to make a difference. So if you believe in more choices and if you believe the media needs to cover ALL the candidates, you can call the number and/or you can click here and write an e-mail to Meet The Press.

The e-mail address for this site is common_ills@yahoo.com.







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