KRISTEN WELKER: Good Sunday morning. With less than 48 hours until Election Day, Democrats and Republicans are fighting for control of Congress. President Trump is heading to Iowa and Kansas today -- two states with critical Senate races that could determine the balance of power in Washington. And this morning, we have the results of our final NBC News poll before Election Day. NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki is at the big board. Steve, it all comes down to this.
STEVE KORNACKI: Yeah, Kristen, good morning to you. This is our final temperature check before we get those votes, start coming in on Tuesday. So where do things stand heading into there? Donald Trump’s approval rating, it sits in our final pre-election poll at 40% approval and 60% on the disapprove side. Now remember, this is Trump’s second midterm. Back in 2018, Republicans lost control of the House. They lost 40 seats in the House. They actually were okay in the Senate that year. What was his approval rating heading into that midterm in 2018? It was higher. It was 46% in our final poll then. So by this metric, Trump is in worse shape heading into his second midterm than into his first one. There is also this: the generic ballot. Which party would you like to see control Congress? The advantage there in our poll is seven points for the Democrats, 52-45. That is an uptick of two points from when we last polled this around Labor Day. And again compare this to 2018 and 2022, the two most recent midterms, it was dead even before the 2022 midterms, with a six point edge for Republicans back in 2018. So what are the ingredients going into these numbers here? Overwhelmingly it is this: how do you feel about the current state of the economy? Barely one quarter of voters say they’re satisfied with it. Almost three quarters say they’re dissatisfied. Again, compare this to Trump’s first midterm in 2018. I think this is why his standing in that approval rating is lower now. Because look at this, in 2018 the economy was his strong suit. Nearly 70% of voters on the eve of that midterm were satisfied with it. Total opposite right now. And then there is this one. Your own personal financial situation: 49 satisfied, 51 dissatisfied. Two notes on this: Again, in Trump’s first midterm in the run-up to it, the number -- sorry it’s not cooperating there. But the number was much higher back then. And this 51% figure that you see right here for dissatisfied, that is the first time in over 30 years of the NBC poll that the dissatisfaction number has been at that level, has been a majority. And so an--d the advantage here for the -- sorry about this board, Kristen, finally got it to cooperate there. But which party would do a better job on key issues? This also tells the story here. When it comes to inflation, Democrats with an advantage of a point. That may not seem like much. But this was like a 20 point advantage for Republicans just a couple years ago as Trump was returning to the White House. Same thing here on the economy. That is a two point advantage for Republicans. But again, this was Trump’s strong suit. This has historically been a strong suit. For those to even be close, that represents ground gained by Democrats. Again, there are a number of folks who say they aren’t sure and don’t favor either party on it. But again, those are advantages there clearly the Democrats have carved out here. Is there hope for Republicans? The one number they would point to would simply be, and this is a difference from 2018, the image of the two political parties here. Republicans are not popular. But their number overall as a party, their favorable, unfavorable number, about where it was in 2018. The Democrats, though, Kristen, only 29% favorable right now. That’s different than 2018. And that is one of the questions heading into Tuesday. In ‘18 the Democrats as a party, they were positioned to take votes from voters who were dissatisfied with Trump. Does the Democratic Party have more baggage now in a way that will prevent it from capitalizing on all of these other numbers we’re showing you?
STEPHANOPOULOS: Let's turn to our team of correspondents covering the issues driving the voters in the midterms. Economy, biggest one of all. I want to start with Elizabeth Schulze in Washington. Cost of living overwhelming all other issues, Elizabeth.
ELIZABETH SCHULZE, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: No question. Good morning, George. And the price of gas is on track to set an election day record. Gas right now averaging $4.14 a gallon. Diesel, the lifeblood of the economy, is at $6.30. And this has now been the longest stretch on record with gas above $4 a gallon and it is dominating the midterms. This new Reuters/Ipsos poll this week found 72 percent of Americans say the cost of living is on the wrong track. Three-quarters of voters, including half of Republicans, disapprove of President Trump's handling of inflation and prices. And the reality is that the president's policies have fueled inflation. The spike in oil from the Iran War has driven up prices across the economy. Tariffs are contributing to higher costs for goods. And as a result of the president's signature tax and spending law, millions of lower-income Americans have lost access to federal benefits like food assistance and health care. The overall big picture, George, is that consumer spending has been very resilient, but more people are dipping into their savings to cover these higher costs, and wages are no longer keeping up with prices, George.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And, Elizabeth, so much of the economy right now is being driven by A.I. spending. It's also driving the stock market -- but a backlash developing on the campaign trail.
SCHULZE: Yes, and this is really a litmus test from voters on how they view A.I., which has been propping up stocks and the broader economy. A new report out this week from the government showed that half of all of economic growth in the U.S. in the third quarter came from business investment fueled by spending on A.I. We have seen tech companies pour hundreds of billions of dollars into building out data centers. So, there are new fears on Wall Street over how long it might take for that investment to pay off. And in town halls across the country, our team has seen this bipartisan, grassroots opposition to these data centers. Republicans have flipped on this issue, but President Trump has doubled down on them, George.
I spent the better part of a year trying to answer one question: Why do Americans feel this bad about an economy that, on paper, is this good? Some 74% of Americans rate the economy as poor, not far off the 84% who said the same in 2009, when the country was shedding jobs by the hundreds of thousands.
People who handed me, a stranger, their bank statements because nobody else was asking aren’t going to be won over by a mailer. “Cooling” inflation sounds like an insult to people whose rent doubled and stayed doubled. When a family is one ordinary bill from the edge, its backup plan is sleeping in the car. People who spent years blaming themselves have started blaming the people in charge. Parents and grandparents are wondering if their children will get to stay in the places they built.
This is an electorate that is angry and unconvinced its vote changes anything. In the closest races in the country, it may not matter which candidate has the better plan. It may matter which one people finally believe was listening.
I built the spreadsheets first. I’m a numbers guy, and I won’t apologize for it. But the spreadsheets didn’t explain it. More than four dozen people across six episodes did, though, at their own kitchen tables, usually with their bills spread out in front of us.
Here are the five things they taught me that no top-line number will.
Jolene Simecek’s rent in Cleveland went “from $785 to nearly $1,600” for the same apartment in the space of seven years. “When I file my taxes,” she told me, “my income is definitely not doubled.”
In Tampa, Phebie White’s rent climbed from $850 to $1,250 while her Social Security check sat still. “Your bills are going to go up,” she said, “but your Social Security is not going to go up.” Annual adjustments, known as COLAs, have not kept pace with rising expenses in recent years.
Prices are up 6.8% since December 2024. Average hourly pay is up 5.9%. That gap is the whole story in two numbers, and it’s why “the economy is improving” lands like an insult.
Inflation, especially gas prices, has soared over the last year. The job market has been in stasis, and higher interest rates have meant it’s more expensive for Americans to borrow money for loans and mortgages.
These fluctuations have a concrete impact on the lives of Americans. A recent Harris poll for the Guardian found that a majority of Americans, including some Republicans, disagree. Nearly two-thirds said they believe the country is experiencing a recession, and many said higher prices had been a pain point. Americans are reporting having trouble saving, and a third polled said one surprise bill could sink them financially.
“The prices of everything we normally buy have gone up and up dramatically,” said Dwayne Stanford, a father of eight in suburban Cincinnati, who chose only Democratic candidates during early voting in his state. “It’s just the everyday stuff.”
“Everybody’s feeling it in terms of inflation,” said Bret Rhodus, 52, an independent voter from Douglas County, Kan. “College costs, because I’m kind of in that stage of life. But even, like, the price of a pizza.”
“It’s expensive,” said Sophia Gallerani, 80, a retiree who said she cast her ballot for the Republican ticket on the first day of early voting in Tucson, Ariz. “Basic needs like eating and gas for getting to appointments if I have any or going to church.”
The worries of voters, which cross lines of generation and gender, race and political ideology, reflect the anxieties of a country convinced that the American dream is slipping away. In polls, focus groups and interviews, voters described some of the traditional promises of a middle-class life — health care, a college education, homeownership and retirement — as becoming rapidly unaffordable. They fear their children will live a worse life than they do.
KRISTEN WELKER: Thank you so much for being here in person. Let’s start with the dramatic developments out of Michigan. You have this last-minute intra-party fighting between Abdul El-Sayed and his challenger in the primary, Haley Stevens. She has criticized his views on Israel. She’s upset that he hasn’t disavowed an ad that he had nothing to do with that she says was antisemitic. Let me ask you, could this cost Democrats the seat in Michigan?
REP. JAMIE RASKIN: No. I spoke last night to Haley Stevens, and I spoke to Abdul as well, and my wonderful friend Haley Stevens wants me to represent to you and everybody else I talk to that she is voting straight down the line on the Democratic ticket, and she’s going to be celebrating with Democrats across the country when we win on Tuesday night. And this is inside the Beltway, inside baseball imbroglio, so I believe that we’re going to have a landslide in Michigan for lots of candidates, like Callie Barr in the 1st District, like Sean McCann. I think Michigan’s going to be in great shape. And the Democrats have really never been more unified or more focused, because everybody understands the big picture here. Are we going to have progress under Democratic government, or are we going to have continuing corruption under authoritarian chaos with Donald Trump and all of his MAGA followers? That’s the big picture here. Haley gets it. Abdul gets it. And I think what we’re going to see on Tuesday night is a reflection of that.
Shortly after Raskin had made his statements regarding his "wonderful friend Haley Stevens" voting straight Democrat on her ballot, Stevens endorsed Mike Rogers. Tim Balk and Reid J. Epstein (NEW YORK TIMES) report:
Facing a bleak electoral outlook two days before Election Day, Republicans received a dash of positive news Sunday in Michigan, where the Democrat who lost a primary fight to Dr. Abdul El-Sayed endorsed his Republican opponent for Senate and deepened an intraparty rift.
The surprise endorsement of Mike Rogers by Representative Haley Stevens outraged many of her fellow Democrats, who condemned her for potentially endangering a crucial Senate seat. Republicans were hoping it could provide some momentum in the face of widespread voter discontent with President Trump, as reflected in a final poll from The New York Times and Siena University released Sunday night.
[. . .]
Ms. Stevens’s endorsement in Michigan rocked the race for a seat that is Republicans’ best chance to flip a seat. “I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today,” Ms. Stevens said in a video posted on social media Sunday afternoon. “I don’t belong in Abdul’s campaign.”
Democrats were furious over Ms. Stevens’s reversal — Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, called it a “despicable betrayal” — but Dr. El-Sayed told reporters, “None of this matters.”
Stevens' betrayal was covered on CNN NEWSROOM:
BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Fredricka, the message from here and elsewhere around the Detroit area and Michigan and the message really coming from Michigan's top Democratic powerbrokers, the fallout from Haley Stevens decision has really been more vitriolic among the top Democratic powerbrokers in the state of Michigan. And by that, I mean a Michigan Democratic Party chair, Curtis Hertel, and also Congresswoman Debbie Dingell. She is one of the most senior Democratic figures in the entire state of Michigan. She has been trying to broker kind of a peace agreement between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens. She's trying to broker some solidarity between the two of them for the past several days. And she is pretty much stunned by this decision from Haley Stevens. I caught up with Congresswoman Dingell at this event just a short time ago. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. DEBBIE DINGELL (D), MICHIGAN: Like, I was stunned since she had told me she wasn't doing that last night at midnight. But, you know, it's just drama that doesn't matter. She has actually helped Abdul. His fundraising is up. People in Detroit are outraged. I just want to focus on what the issues are on Tuesday and remind people what's at stake, the cost of living, a broken health care system, and the corruption in Washington.
TODD: Does she have a future in the Democratic Party here in Michigan or anywhere?
DINGELL: Unfortunately, she seriously hurt herself.
TODD: OK.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TODD: That was also the refrain from the Michigan Democratic Party chair, Curtis Hertel, who we spoke to just a short time ago before I talked to Haley Stevens. Curtis Hertel maybe even more vitriolic against Haley Stevens than Ms. Dingell was. Hertel saying that basically, she betrayed the Democratic Party, that she betrayed her constituents, that she has no future in the Democratic Party. So, this has been the fallout, at least from top Michigan Democrats to this, Fredricka, has just been really extraordinary here. Of course, both Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed kind of trying to play it down. Haley Stevens saying, hey, I'm just one vote, that 90 percent of my other votes are going to be for Democrats. Abdul El-Sayed saying, I don't really think about Haley Stevens or Mike Rogers, I'm focusing on the issues. But clearly, you know, the behind the scenes vitriol and the maneuvering behind the scenes here in Michigan and the continued fallout is really palpable. We're going to, of course, see in the next couple of days how that plays out in the voting booth. But, you know, it really has been just a very dramatic morning, afternoon, and evening here in the Detroit area.
Top appropriators call on Education Secretary to scrap plans to refurnish her office
Washington, D.C. — Today, U.S. Senators Patty Murray (D-WA), Vice Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Ranking Member of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education, sent a letter to Department of Education Secretary Linda McMahon calling on her to scrap plans to spend over $43,000 in taxpayer dollars on new furniture for her office.
“It has come to our attention that as you cut off funding for students, push out staff, and do all you can to illegally dismantle the very Department you lead, you plan to spend $43,278.64 on new furniture for your own office,” write Murray and Baldwin. “You vowed to put yourself out of a job; now you expect American taxpayers to pick up the tab to refurnish your own office.”
“Secretary McMahon, you have asked students, families, and teachers across the country to endure extraordinarily painful cuts in the name of ‘fiscal responsibility,’ and you have pushed out nearly half of the staff at the Department… This year, you have asked Congress to slash funding for important K-12 programs and to cut funding for higher education programs by nearly $5 billion,” they continue. “But it is clear that you do not think that you should have to abide by the same rules you want to apply to others.”
Senators Murry and Baldwin conclude by calling on Secretary McMahon to scrap the planned purchases, which the Department claimed were necessary in part because the Secretary’s existing furniture “cannot be … aesthetically integrated into the agency’s new office space.” They write: “The American people are sick of the corruption, sick of the waste, and sick of the hypocrisy coming out of all corners of this administration.”
The full letter is available HERE and below:
Secretary McMahon:
It has come to our attention that as you cut off funding for students, push out staff, and do all you can to illegally dismantle the very Department you lead, you plan to spend $43,278.64 on new furniture for your own office. While schools nationwide lose out on funding Congress provided for everything from literacy programs to student mental health because of actions taken by your Department, you are wasting tax dollars on frivolous furniture purchases. You vowed to put yourself out of a job; now you expect American taxpayers to pick up the tab to refurnish your own office.
Secretary McMahon, you have asked students, families, and teachers across the country to endure extraordinarily painful cuts in the name of “fiscal responsibility,” and you have pushed out nearly half of the staff at the Department in a chaotic, illegal campaign to fire employees tasked with protecting students with disabilities in the classroom and going after predatory student lenders. This year, you have asked Congress to slash funding for important K-12 programs and to cut funding for higher education programs by nearly $5 billion—including by destroying programs like TRIO and Federal Work Study.
But it is clear that you do not think that you should have to abide by the same rules you want to apply to others. As you illegally spin off the Department’s core functions to other agencies and are forcing hundreds of your employees to move to agencies across government, apparently your old furniture cannot be moved to your new office.
We want the Department of Education to have a safe and professional office space to work from—but that must mean a safe and professional office space for every employee, not merely the Secretary. While you use Americans’ tax dollars to refurnish your own new office, you have forced your own employees to go work in offices that “are unsafe and in disrepair, with water leaking from ceilings, mold in kitchens, extreme temperatures from a failing HVAC system, insect traps filled with dead bugs and live insects in lactation rooms and work areas.” Your Department claims that the existing furniture in your office “cannot be … aesthetically integrated into the agency’s new office space.” It is unjustifiable to buy new furniture while students lose access to education services you are illegally dismantling and suffer from painful funding cuts that were not authorized by Congress.
The American people are sick of the corruption, sick of the waste, and sick of the hypocrisy coming out of all corners of this administration. They deserve a full accounting of how and why their tax dollars are being used to buy new office furniture for a secretary whose stated mission is to put themselves out of a job. We urge you to reconsider this wasteful purchase, restore Congressionally mandated funding families are counting on, and refocus your Department’s time on helping students get ahead.
Sincerely,
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