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Had a fruitful meeting with President @BarhamSalih at the Salam Palace in #Baghdad. We discussed several topics and had the opportunity to share with him the objectives of the @AtlanticCouncil’s #Iraq Initiative. This new administration brings a much needed hope and optimism.
All the hopes that this development will not lead to a knee-jerk reaction from non-state actors in #Iraq that will lead to an endless series of death and destruction in the country and deny Iraq stability for years to come. (8)
Asian markets already showed an immediate 4% rise in #oil prices. Expect much higher prices if an immediate Iranian reaction takes place in the coming days. (7)
Armed groups that were part of the insurgency prior to 2011 will return to their original role.
They will initially hold the Iraqi government hostage to their demand for formally requesting the US to leave #Iraq. A move, if it happens, will give them pretext to use violence. (6)
This event will also have a direct effect on the demonstrators at Tahrir Square & othe Iraqi provinces, whose calls for reform & Iraqi independence (especially from Iran’s influence) will take a back seat. (5)
In the short term, this event will force all Americans, especially businesses & travelers, out of Iraq for safety’s purposes.
Iraq’s govt. is at its weakest time, since the PM’s resignation. They will not be in a position to do much for or against either side in the dispute. (4)
The Iraqi Govt. will try to contain the consequences of this event, which is perhaps the most consequential event in Iraq after the US invasion of Iraq.
But the main challenge will be the armed groups that aren’t controlled by #Iraq’s Commander-in-Chief. (3)
#Iraq’s national leaders hoped to avoid having their country being theater of US-Iran conflict.
Three reactions to watch for in the next few hours:
Iraqi PM Adil Abd al-Mahdi, Muqtada al-Sadr, Sistani’s Friday message in the coming few hours, & of course Iran’s statement. (2)
#Iraq: Abu Mahdi al-Mihandis, 2nd man in the Popular Mobilization Forces & Gen. Qasim Soleimani, Commabder of Iran’s Quds Force, were killed in a US military operation.
This took the recent US-Iran conflict to another level, putting Iraq in the heart of the fight. (1)
Dr. Abbas Kadhim Retweeted
Dr. Abbas Kadhim Retweeted
There is more to watch and prepare for in #Iraq, writes @TomWarrickAC. Read article here:
@ACMideast, @AtlanticCouncil
Dr. Abbas Kadhim Retweeted
How did we get to this new low and potentially game-changing turning point in US-Iraq relations and what does it mean? @DrAbbasKadhim weighs in here:
Dr. Abbas Kadhim Retweeted
The attention on Iraq will shift away from the protesters & the reforms they are calling for to the “more newsworthy” events in the Green Zone & the aftermath of the attack on the US Embassy. @ACMideast's Iraq Initiative director @DrAbbasKadhim weighs in.
My article: “New low in US-#Iraq relations: What’s next for 2020”.
@AtlanticCouncil, #IraqEmbassyAttack, #IraqProtests
